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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."